Gold market “seriously overheated” as US elections loom large
Chris CammackOctober 31, 2024 01:28 PM
If Donald Trump wins, tax cuts and tariffs mean stronger inflation, higher yields, and a much stronger US dollar. This is bad for gold.
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Chris CammackOctober 31, 2024 01:28 PM
If Donald Trump wins, tax cuts and tariffs mean stronger inflation, higher yields, and a much stronger US dollar. This is bad for gold.
Chris CammackOctober 17, 2024 12:11 PM
While it is hard to bet against gold’s extraordinary run, the fundamentals show that a pullback from the recent highs could well occur over the short term.
Chris CammackOctober 3, 2024 12:14 PM
If we see a continuation or escalation of hostilities, expect gold, oil, and the USD to push even higher
Chris CammackSeptember 19, 2024 03:37 PM
We can now expect a relatively rapid reduction in interest rates for all major currencies and a period of increased volatility.
Chris CammackSeptember 12, 2024 10:29 AM
Any significant volatility will come from the ECB’s forward guidance, with big question marks over further cuts in October and December.
Chris CammackSeptember 5, 2024 12:29 PM
The odds of a 50-bps rate cut on September 18th have risen. Uncertainty is the market’s worst nightmare; whatever the decision is, we will see serious volatility.
Chris CammackAugust 22, 2024 02:05 PM
Recent developments have forced the USD lower as a September rate cut looks certain, but will the cut be 25bps or 50? And will Powell’s speech shed any light?
Chris CammackAugust 15, 2024 02:11 PM
Today’s surprise data put paid to the dollar’s fall, with retail sales up 1% vs 0.3% expected – the biggest increase since January 2023.
Chris CammackAugust 1, 2024 01:49 PM
Given the high probability of a US rate cut in September and the uncertainty in the EU, the price of the EUR/USD will likely remain dependant on EU data, rather than events in the US.
Chris CammackJuly 18, 2024 02:27 PM
With interest rates now likely to come down at least twice and possibly three times this year - and Biden’s bid for a second term looking weaker than ever - gold prices are likely to remain elevated.
Chris CammackJuly 11, 2024 01:45 PM
The USD nosedived, and the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September received a major boost today as US CPI figures showed a further fall in inflation.
Chris CammackJuly 4, 2024 01:26 PM
The GBP looks set for further gains over the coming weeks, especially considering any further weakness in the US economy. However, this may not translate into long-term gains for the EUR/USD.
Chris CammackJune 27, 2024 11:23 AM
Whatever happens, the USD/JPY pair is set for further volatility. The BoJ’s previous interventions have seen moves of over 500 pips, so prudent risk management is especially important.
Chris CammackJune 20, 2024 01:55 PM
Central banks are less concerned about the price of gold. Their purchasing priorities are now set by the long-term political goal of independence from the USD.
Chris CammackJune 13, 2024 02:44 PM
It’s been a wild week in the markets. After weeks of relatively low volatility, Friday’s NFP release kicked off a rollercoaster ride for traders.
Chris CammackJune 6, 2024 03:30 PM
If the US economy continues to show signs of a slowdown, increasing the chances of a September rate cut, we could see a ranging market for the EUR/USD.
Chris CammackMay 30, 2024 12:32 PM
The pressure on the ECB to lower interest rates in its June 6th meeting is immense, and the market is fully expecting a cut.
Chris CammackMay 16, 2024 02:51 PM
After the CPI figures were released, the chances of a September rate cut increased to 72%, with a July rate cut not out of the question either, with a 35% chance.
Chris CammackMay 9, 2024 12:16 PM
The good news is the expectations of divergence in rates have brought renewed volatility and volume to the Forex markets.
Chris CammackMay 2, 2024 01:47 PM
But it does seem like the Bank of Japan has drawn a line in the sand, so JPY bears are cautious
Chris CammackApril 25, 2024 02:12 PM
As long as retail, governmental, and institutional investors remain wary of riskier assets, we can expect gold prices to remain elevated.
Chris CammackApril 18, 2024 02:28 PM
However, with so many central banks expressing concerns over the dollar's strength, many market players seem to be in profit-taking mode, which has seen the DXY stall at 105.97.
Chris CammackApril 11, 2024 12:16 PM
With rhetoric from policymakers in the US now surely more hawkish, there seems to be a generous upside for the USD vs. all major currencies in the coming months.
Chris CammackMarch 14, 2024 02:35 PM
OPEC forecasts that 2024 will see overall demand increase by 2.2 million barrels per day, with a 1.8-million-barrel increase in 2025.
Chris CammackMarch 7, 2024 03:07 PM
In February, Saxo Bank reported a monthly Forex trading volume of $92.4 billion, down from $106.7 billion in January and a huge decline from $134.8 billion in December 2023.
Chris CammackFebruary 22, 2024 02:56 PM
Any moves above the 1.0860 level could see the 1.0900 psychological level come into focus, and beyond that, traders will be eyeing the 1.0950 level.
Chris CammackFebruary 15, 2024 12:27 PM
Optimism abounds and concerns over scandal and fraud are fading, but traders need to be aware that cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and almost completely reliant on trader sentiment for price changes.
Chris CammackFebruary 1, 2024 01:46 PM
Markets predicted that the Bank of England would keep rates on hold today, which they did. This leant temporary support for the GBP/USD but will also put further pressure on the beleaguered economy.
Chris CammackJanuary 25, 2024 02:40 PM
A raft of other US economic data released at the same time were more mixed. Initial and continuing jobless claims both increased, and inflation for final prices of goods and services came in much lower than expected.
Chris CammackJanuary 18, 2024 02:36 PM
Traders are advised to keep a close eye on data coming out of the US, as well as any forward-looking statements made by policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic
Chris CammackJanuary 11, 2024 03:26 PM
Markets are still expecting/hoping for a cut in interest rates in March, though with the CBE Fedwatch tool showing a 65% probability this is still very uncertain.
Chris CammackNovember 2, 2023 10:55 AM
Less than two months after the European Central Bank (ECB) failed to convince markets that it may raise interest rates again this year, the US Federal Reserve finds itself in the same boat.
Chris CammackOctober 12, 2023 08:53 AM
Traders should be wary; the main actors in this conflict's long and bloody history are not known for their restraint, and all wars are unpredictable by their nature.
Chris CammackOctober 5, 2023 08:39 AM
But with a US recession now looking likely and the EUR/USD heading deep into oversold territory, the outlook for 2024 is much less clear.
Chris CammackSeptember 28, 2023 02:41 PM
The GBP is trading at a 6-month low against the USD and the EUR following the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% on Tuesday, 26th September.
Chris CammackSeptember 7, 2023 01:18 PM
Geopolitical consequences aside, the extension of the cuts raises questions for central banks in their efforts to tackle inflation, the US Federal Reserve in particular.
Chris CammackAugust 31, 2023 02:08 PM
The USD/ZAR has been on a wild ride this summer, and with the US Federal Reserve’s unclear stance on interest rates and the flagging Chinese economy, the turbulence is not over.
Chris CammackAugust 24, 2023 02:35 PM
The cryptocurrency industry has rolled from crisis to crisis for almost a year now. With multiple pivotal events approaching that will define the future of the asset class, what could be in store for the market?
Chris CammackAugust 17, 2023 11:24 AM
Robust US data has made it difficult for the EUR/USD to recover. Having tested the 1.0900 psychological support handle and dropped below it, it looks like it will now test new support around the 1.08500 level.
Chris CammackAugust 3, 2023 04:28 PM
In a surprise aftermarket move on Tuesday, August 1st 2023, Fitch – one of the major debt rating agencies – downgraded US government debt to AA+ from AAA.
Chris CammackJuly 27, 2023 02:31 PM
Following the ECB rate hike, the EUR/USD fell over 70 pips in an hour, heading strongly towards oversold territory after breaking the 1.2500 level last week.
Chris CammackJuly 20, 2023 11:05 AM
For now, things are quiet. But as with all ranging currency pairs, things look more interesting from a technical standpoint.
Chris CammackJuly 13, 2023 02:33 PM
The DXY Dollar Index finished the day down -1.08%, its largest fall since January. The Dow jumped over 200 points before correcting later in the day.
Chris CammackJuly 6, 2023 02:46 PM
With a July interest rate rise now all but locked in for the US, we can expect a continued upside bias for the USD vs other major currencies.
Chris CammackJune 29, 2023 09:57 AM
At the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, central bank leaders were unequivocal on the need for further monetary tightening. The DXY surged with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD hit particularly hard.
Chris CammackJune 22, 2023 11:51 AM
Volatility in the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue as traders look to a second day of testimony from Jay Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank.
Chris CammackJune 19, 2023 11:53 AM
Inflation is expected to remain high in the UK, diverging from the Eurozone and USA, where inflation is falling rapidly. UK interest rates should continue to rise as a result, supporting the GBP in the short and medium term.
Chris CammackJune 15, 2023 12:18 PM
The EUR bulls are back in control of the EUR/USD and it is clear that the markets do not believe that the Fed is going to continue hiking interest rates in the medium term, despite the hawkish rhetoric.
Chris CammackJune 12, 2023 01:43 PM
The current probability of a rate rise by the Fed is between 20-30%, so if there is a surprise increase, the EUR/USD will be hit hard and the DXY will make major gains.
Chris CammackJune 5, 2023 03:27 PM
The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.07 on the news, and the DXY was broadly lower – erasing any session gains.
Chris CammackMay 31, 2023 12:57 PM
Weakness in the USD was short-lived due to better-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone and the debt ceiling talks in the US.
Chris CammackMay 29, 2023 10:50 AM
With the US default looking less likely, traders are pulling out of the USD and beginning to look further ahead.
Chris CammackMay 25, 2023 03:52 PM
The implications of a US default for global financial markets, including the EUR/USD, are generating attention, particularly considering the US dollar's haven status.
Chris CammackMay 25, 2023 01:34 PM
SARB pivoted away from market expectations today, raising the interest rate by .5% and citing currency weakness.
Chris CammackMay 18, 2023 06:25 PM
The pressure on the rand is relentless, but some analysts are optimistic. Is this optimism founded in reality?
Chris CammackMay 18, 2023 09:53 AM
This week the Rand hit a new record low amid increasing loadshedding and US accusations that SA provided arms to Russia. Chris provides some insight on why the Rand has been so negatively affected, and speculates on its future movements.
Chris CammackMay 3, 2023 07:15 PM
As expected, today's FOMC meeting resulted in a 25-basis point hike in interest rates. The market´s response was subdued; this hike had been priced in for some time.
Chris CammackApril 12, 2023 04:19 PM
All the major currencies were up against the US dollar following the latest CPI release. But the underlying data may wrongfoot the market in the weeks ahead.
Chris CammackApril 5, 2023 05:33 PM
Fears for the US economy continue to grow with job openings falling and a less-than-expected increase in private employment. But the USD has remained resilient.
Chris CammackApril 5, 2023 12:34 PM
Chris from the podcast Let's Talk Forex with Alison and Chris shares his latest analysis of the effects of the weak US jobs data ahead of Friday's NFP report.
Chris CammackMarch 29, 2023 03:51 PM
Following the market chaos over the last two weeks, a relative calm has beset the markets. But the outlook for the USD remains uncertain as markets focus on monetary policy divergence in Europe and the US.
Chris CammackMarch 24, 2023 08:00 AM
Chris from the podcast Let's Talk Forex with Alison and Chris shares his latest analysis of the effects of the Fed's March interest rate hike.
Chris CammackMarch 15, 2023 02:31 PM
Last week’s spectacular collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), closely followed by Signature Bank, has spooked the markets, raised the spectre of a bank run in the US and opened a Pandora’s Box of pressing questions and concerns.
Chris CammackFebruary 16, 2023 01:18 PM
Recent data releases in the US have surprised investors, with US economic growth remaining stubbornly resilient in the face of repeated interest rate increases by the Fed. But what does this mean for the markets in the mid-term?
Chris CammackDecember 7, 2022 01:01 PM
Predicting the DXY: Winter 22/23 Edition
Chris CammackDecember 6, 2022 02:16 PM
The Rand has stabilised over the last 24 hours as investors were placated by better-than-expected GDP figures and a clear pathway to resolving the scandal engulfing President Ramaphosa.
Alison HeyerdahlSeptember 24, 2022 08:30 PM
The GBP crashes as the new UK government scares investors, is this just another example of the USD’s strength causing chaos in currency markets? How long can the Dollar keep on rising and what does the market volatility mean for Forex traders?
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